AI adoption is reshaping the US labour market faster than many policymakers, economists, and workers anticipated, intensifying debate over whether the technology is destroying jobs or fundamentally changing how work is done.While past innovations — from assembly lines to personal computers — have repeatedly altered employment patterns, experts warn that artificial intelligence represents a disruption of an unprecedented scale. Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates has described AI as “a disruptor like nothing in our lifetimes”, noting that its growing accuracy and capability have caught industries off guard, including healthcare, education, finance and professional services.
New research suggests the workforce impact could be substantial. A recent Massachusetts Institute of Technology study found that AI systems are already capable of automating or replacing tasks that account for nearly 12% of the US labour market, representing up to US$1.2 trillion in wages. The effects are expected to be felt most acutely in white-collar roles, particularly across finance, healthcare and professional services.Labour market data is beginning to reflect pressure in some high-skilled occupations. Employment in several of the highest-paying roles, such as management analysts and aerospace engineers, has fallen by around 3.5% over the past five years. Jobs in finance, architecture and engineering have declined by roughly 2% to 2.5% over the same period. The unemployment rate among college graduates has also edged higher, with majors considered more exposed to AI, including computer engineering and architecture, among those affected.
However, economists remain divided on how much of this slowdown can be directly attributed to artificial intelligence. Martha Gimbel, executive director of Yale’s Budget Lab, has cautioned against overstating AI’s impact, saying there is little evidence so far of broad, economy-wide job losses driven by the technology.At the same time, some data points to a more positive outlook.
A Vanguard analysis found job and wage growth over the past two years in occupations more exposed to AI, suggesting the technology may be boosting productivity and creating new demand rather than replacing workers outright. Separately, surveys of institutional investors and corporate CEOs indicate expectations that AI will drive increased hiring across all levels in 2026.
As adoption accelerates, lawmakers are moving to better track AI’s workforce effects. A bipartisan bill introduced by Senators Josh Hawley and Mark Warner would require companies and federal agencies to report quarterly to the Department of Labour on layoffs linked to artificial intelligence, aiming to provide a clearer national picture of how AI is reshaping the American workforce.