A survey found AI’s impact on employment has so far been limited, but workers and bosses both expect that to change; the question is, how?
Senior executives see AI adoption leading to job cuts, while workers say it will increase employment, according to a new survey published by the US National Bureau of Economic Research.
Amid so much speculation about the impact of the new technology, NBER’s study is tantalizingly titled “Firm data on AI” — but the data, which comes from a survey of 6,000 firms in four countries, leads to few solid conclusions.
More than 80% of executives surveyed said AI had no impact on either employment or productivity over the past three years. However, over the next three years, the situation will change: 3 years, forecasting AI will boost productivity by 1.4%, increase output by 0.8% and cut employment by 0.7%. This last finding contrasts sharply with employees surveyed, who expect an increase in employment of 0.5% over the same period.
Previous research suggests that the bosses have got it right. There is evidence that AI deployment has already had an effect, hitting entry levels jobs especially hard. And IT professionals believe that their jobs will be badly affected by AI.
One thing is already clear. AI is well on its way to being an essential part of the working day. The NBER survey, which covered the US, UK, Germany and Australia, found that about 69% of firms actively use AI, predominantly for text generation, particularly younger, more productive firms. Among senior executives, 72% personally use AI at work, although only for an average of 1.5 hours per week.