Canada’s student unemployment rate has jumped to 17.4 percent, the highest it’s been in a non-pandemic year since 2009, raising concerns among economists that it could signal a slowdown, or even a coming recession.
The number, released in Statistics Canada’s June Labour Force Survey, refers specifically to “returning students,” full-time students aged 15 to 24 who intend to resume studies in the fall. It’s a significant jump from 15.8 percent in June 2024, and even further above the 11.9 percent recorded in 2023.
“That’s really concerning to me,” said Viet Vu, economic researcher at Toronto Metropolitan University. “Youth unemployment is a leading indicator of what could be a recession.”
The data reflects a labor market that, while posting headline job gains, 83,000 new positions in June, according to Statistics Canada, remains uneven beneath the surface. The national unemployment rate stands at 6.9 percent, unchanged from the previous month, and long-term joblessness remains a concern.
Youth and students hit hardest
The broader youth unemployment rate, which includes all 15- to 24-year-olds (not just students), was 14.2 percent in June. That’s well above the pre-pandemic average of 10.8 percent (2017–2019), suggesting younger Canadians are disproportionately affected by current economic pressures.
Students typically rely on summer jobs for income, experience, and savings to support their education. But this year, those positions are vanishing.
“This has been a brutal summer for students to look for a job,” said Jim Stanford, director at the Centre for Future Work. “The openings are just not there.”
What’s causing the drop?
Economists cite multiple contributing factors:
- Trade uncertainty: Companies are wary of expanding payrolls amid economic instability, particularly as US tariffs on Canadian exports fluctuate. Many are choosing not to hire seasonal or junior workers this year.
- Cost management: With economic forecasts showing slow growth and cautious consumer spending, firms are prioritizing cost-saving measures, starting with entry-level roles.
“When companies squeeze their budget, the first positions to go tend to be the most junior,” said Vu. “Which tells you that these companies aren’t doing well because they can’t afford to hire a summer student.”
Regional disparities
The student job crisis is more acute in some regions. In Windsor, Ontario, overall unemployment was 11.2 percent, the highest in the country. Other areas, such as British Columbia and Atlantic Canada, also reported higher-than-average youth jobless rates.
In response to the situation, the federal government has expanded the Canada Summer Jobs Program, adding 6,000 additional wage-subsidized jobs to the existing 70,000 placements. But experts say that may not be enough to address the depth of the issue.
“There’s been some caution that employers have undertaken because the situation could go in multiple directions,” said Brendon Bernard, senior economist at Indeed.
Some analysts warn that if youth joblessness persists into the fall, it could start dragging down broader economic indicators, particularly consumer demand and future workforce development.