Nearly eight in ten global executives expect artificial intelligence to make a significant contribution to revenue by 2030, highlighting growing confidence in the technology’s commercial impact even as uncertainty over execution persists.
According to new research from the IBM Institute for Business Value, 79% of surveyed executives believe AI will drive revenue within the next five years, up sharply from 40% today. Yet only 24% said they have a clear view of where that future AI-led revenue will come from, underscoring a widening gap between ambition and preparedness.
The findings point to a surge in spending despite that uncertainty. Executives surveyed expect AI investment to rise by about 150% between now and 2030. At the same time, 68% said they worry their AI initiatives could fail because they are not sufficiently integrated with core business operations.
“AI won’t just support businesses, it will define them,” said Mohamad Ali, senior vice president at IBM Consulting. “By 2030, the companies that win will weave AI into every decision and operation.”
The study, conducted with Oxford Economics and based on responses from more than 2,000 C-suite executives across 33 geographies and 20 industries, suggests that AI is moving from a tool for efficiency to a central driver of growth strategy.
While 47% of current AI spending is focused on efficiency gains, respondents expect 62% of AI investment to be directed towards innovation by 2030. Nearly two-thirds of executives said future competitive advantage would come from innovation rather than resource optimisation, and 70% plan to reinvest productivity gains from AI into growth initiatives.
Executives expect AI to lift productivity by 42% by the end of the decade, with 67% believing they will capture most AI-enabled productivity gains by then. Organisations that are already scaling AI across multiple workflows anticipate stronger outcomes, including higher productivity and operating margins.
The research also highlights uncertainty around technology choices. While 57% of executives said AI model sophistication would be critical to competitive advantage, only 28% have clarity on which AI models they will need by 2030. A majority expect future AI systems to be multi-model, with many predicting that smaller language models will outperform large language models for enterprise use cases.
Beyond technology and revenue, the study points to significant implications for leadership and the workforce. By 2030, executives expect a quarter of enterprise boards to include an AI adviser or co-decision-maker, while 74% believe AI will redefine leadership roles. More than half expect current employee skills to become obsolete by the end of the decade, and many said mindset would matter more than technical skills.
Despite concerns over disruption, executives were broadly optimistic about AI’s potential to ease organisational constraints. Two-thirds said AI could help overcome today’s resource and skills shortages, and organisations described as AI-first were more likely to create new roles and redesign structures to unlock greater value.
As companies accelerate investment, the research suggests that the next phase of AI adoption will hinge less on experimentation and more on execution—embedding the technology deeply into strategy, operations and workforce planning to convert expectations into measurable returns.