Confidence among US workers in their ability to find a new job has fallen to the lowest level on record, according to a New York Federal Reserve survey, underscoring growing weakness in the labour market.
The central bank’s Survey of Consumer Expectations for August showed respondents put the probability of securing another role after losing their current one at 44.9 per cent. That marked a drop of 5.8 percentage points from July and was the weakest reading since the survey began in June 2013, the Wall Street Journal reported.
The figures highlight the reversal of the “Great Resignation” period in 2021 and 2022, when millions of Americans left their jobs each month confident they could quickly find another. At the peak, 4.5 million workers were quitting monthly. By July this year, the number had declined to 3.2 million, more than 5 per cent lower than the same period in 2024, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
“Consumers are feeling down about job-finding opportunities, and those feelings are wholly appropriate,” said Elizabeth Renter, senior economist at personal finance site NerdWallet, speaking to CNBC. “It’s very difficult to find work right now. Employers aren’t hiring much, so workers are stuck job-hugging, clinging to their current jobs because the market isn’t favourable to job seekers.”
Fed survey signals broader unease
Other parts of the New York Fed survey reinforced the downbeat mood. The probability of leaving a job voluntarily in the next year fell marginally to 18.9 per cent, suggesting fewer workers are willing to risk a move. Expectations that the unemployment rate will be higher a year from now rose to 39.1 per cent, up 1.7 percentage points from July. That figure was also above the 12-month average.
The results came days after a disappointing August nonfarm payrolls report. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the economy added just 22,000 jobs last month, far below forecasts of 75,000. In addition, the June reading was revised down to a loss of 13,000 jobs — the first monthly decline since December 2020.
The unemployment rate climbed to 4.3 per cent, while the broader measure that includes discouraged workers and those working part time for economic reasons increased to 8.1 per cent, both the highest levels since October 2021.