As artificial intelligence quietly reshapes how the world works, a bigger, more personal question is beginning to surface in India: what happens to the white-collar jobs in India?
That question is at the centre of a candid letter written to Prime Minister Narendra Modi by global brokerage firm, Bernstein. Rather than focusing only on growth or opportunity, the note zooms in on something more immediate.
While AI promises efficiency and progress, it also brings a quiet anxiety: what kind of jobs India will create in the years ahead, and who might be left behind.
Millions of jobs could be on the line
For many Indians, especially in the services economy, this is not a distant worry. The country’s IT services, BPOs and global capability centres employ between 10 and 15 million people. These are the jobs that helped build India’s middle class, offering stable incomes and upward mobility.
But these are also the very roles most exposed to automation.
AI tools are getting better at handling repetitive and even moderately complex tasks, the kind that large teams once managed. In the letter, authored by Director Venugopal Garre and vice-president Nikhil Arela, Bernstein warns that if automation is pushed too aggressively, it could disrupt this entire ecosystem.
“In artificial intelligence, the risk is not visible today, but it is likely to be profound over time,” the letter notes.
There is also a deeper issue. Millions of workers are already moving away from agriculture in search of better opportunities. If high-quality jobs do not grow fast enough, many could end up in informal or low-paying roles, think delivery work, driving, or gig-based services.
That is where the letter becomes blunt. It asks whether India’s future will be built on engineers and innovators, or on a growing pool of service workers doing low-value tasks.
India’s bigger challenge: Building, not just using AI
Beyond jobs, the concern shifts to something even more fundamental, ownership.
India is investing heavily in data centres and infrastructure, positioning itself as a key player in the digital economy. But Bernstein argues that this is not enough. Without building its own AI models and technologies, India risks becoming just a user of systems created elsewhere.
Right now, most of the value in AI, whether it is platforms, intellectual property, or cutting-edge models, sits with companies in the US and China. “If Indian data continues to be used to train global models without building domestic capability, India risks becoming a permanent consumer in the AI economy,” the brokerage firm observed.
To change that, Bernstein calls for stronger steps. These include building domestic AI capabilities, investing early in sectors like robotics and advanced manufacturing, and ensuring that India retains control over its data through localisation policies.
The firm even suggests that global AI companies should have a stronger presence in India’s financial ecosystem, ensuring that some of the value created flows back into the country.
At its heart, the letter is not anti-AI. It recognises the technology’s potential to transform industries and boost productivity. But it also makes one thing clear: the benefits are not guaranteed.
For India, the real challenge is not whether AI will arrive, it already has. The question is whether the country can shape that future in a way that creates meaningful, sustainable jobs.
Because in the end, as Bernstein points out, a nation’s trajectory is defined by how it puts its people to work. And in the age of AI, that decision may determine far more than just economic growth.